LilMafia1 vampyren federico123
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18a1-OiIEkK8zyV2Otnb2PkiDPUHthOUB/edit#gid=461416470
I published this sheet for my own predictions of Ohm (naked, unstaked) Ohm price which is NOT the best indicator for true performance of a rebasing token with Ohm mechanics. If you want to compare apples to apples the performance of the asset you should look at the Index Adjusted Price (or now you can look at gOHM chart etc.)
Ohmie of the week, @fluidsonic made a great dashboard where you can find that and a lot of excellent information. Link below:
https://dune.xyz/fluidsonic/Olympus-DAO
To understand why so many people are aligned on the reward reduction you need to play around with the sheet and understand that no matter what you do to APY, what really counts for your investment health and profit/loss is the market cap. We know from the math and the rewards what kind of Ohm emissions (ohms in circulation) will be using various scenarios of APY numbers… no matter what APY you put in there while leaving the MC at the same level you will still end up with the same amount of USD value of investment. This is clear when you look at the formula:
MC = Ohm Price X Ohms in Circulation
When MC is fixed … when Ohms in circulation (higher APY) go up Ohm price goes down…
In order to have a healthy protocol you NEED MC to go up not the APY, not the Ohm price etc. only MC needs to grow .. so if we all agree that to benefit all Ohm Investors, Olympus should do EVERYTHING in its power to increase MC.
If we start from this fact, we now can have a better discussion on how to WAGMI all of us, MC to go up you need adoption from fresh investors or additional investment from existing Ohmies:
To get fresh investors that are (3,3) and aligned with the protocol, you cannot rely on high APY as this will cause what you see now, degens aping in and running away when APY goes down... you need long-term investments that come from more traditional/conservative backgrounds. Those will study the Olympus mechanics and will see the seriousness and professionalism of the DAO being responsible in enacting these reward reductions to guarantee long-term health.
Protocols that want sOHM or gOHM in their treasuries will not buy into Ohm if it keeps an unsustainable APY rate that could hurt their own treasuries.
To entice existing long-term (3,3) investors (yes including the whales) to stay and buy more, you also need to reduce APY because most of the existing (3,3) investors do not want dilution... reducing APY is a signal that this protocol is serious and they will double down on their investment.
If you are a whale and you have been selling 1,000 ohms per day or week etc. from your rebasing rewards, to invest somewhere else or to rotate etc. with a lower APY you will have to sell half of that every week or will need to wait for longer before selling the same amount. The same for ALL holders who are selling their rewards regularly... Less sell pressure > Higher price for Ohm.
The argument that the Ohmies (small and large bags) who aped into Ohm at ATH or at less than optimal Entry Price, will be hurt by the APY reduction and will force them to wait longer to breakeven... this is not a reason to set a Protocol policy on, I do feel for them and many of us made investments in this space where we bought the top and either ended up selling bottoms or held to break even ... this is not an OHM issue, it is all of crypto assets issue…
Even the almighty Bitcoin, if you bought the top of 68k USD a few weeks back .. right now you are more than 30% down on your investment... if you bought BTC in April at 64k, 8 months later you are still in loss ... I will not even mention LINK or DOT investors who bought the tops... look at the charts of MANY "AAA" Crypto assets... and again reminder, if you want apples to apples comparison, look at the Ohm Index Adjusted Price chart we are still above the 50% from ATH which is a good indication ... if you only look at the naked Ohm price chart it gives the wrong impression about the real VALUE of the asset you are holding..
Bottomline, there are no "backroom" deals going on with whales and devs etc. to screw the little guy ... this is absurd honestly to think after truly looking into the reality of the Olympus mechanics and its tokenomics.